IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Pepper – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The global pepper market revenue in 2018 is estimated at $4.1B, a decrease of -1.7% y-o-y. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, pepper consumption continues to indicate a strong expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 when the market value increased by 26% against the previous year. The global pepper consumption peaked at $4.2B in 2017, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of pepper consumption in 2018 were Viet Nam (166K tonnes), India (86K tonnes) and the U.S. (68K tonnes), with a combined 41% share of global consumption. These countries were followed by Bulgaria, Indonesia, China, Singapore, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Germany, the United Arab Emirates and the UK, which together accounted for a further 33%.

In value terms, Viet Nam ($904M), India ($506M) and the U.S. ($374M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2018, with a combined 43% share of the global market. These countries were followed by Indonesia, Singapore, China, Malaysia, Bulgaria, Sri Lanka, the United Arab Emirates, Germany and the UK, which together accounted for a further 33%.

The countries with the highest levels of pepper per capita consumption in 2018 were Bulgaria (7,641 kg per 1000 persons), Singapore (5,288 kg per 1000 persons) and Viet Nam (1,724 kg per 1000 persons).

Market Forecast 2019-2025

Driven by increasing demand for pepper worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% for the seven-year period from 2018 to 2025, which is projected to bring the market volume to 840K tonnes by the end of 2025.

Production 2007-2018

In 2018, the amount of pepper produced worldwide stood at 752K tonnes, jumping by 5.1% against the previous year. In general, the total output indicated a conspicuous expansion from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, pepper production increased by +55.4% against 2012 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 with an increase of 11% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global pepper production reached its maximum volume in 2018 and is likely to continue its growth in the immediate term. The general positive trend in terms of pepper output was largely conditioned by a tangible increase of the harvested area and a resilient expansion in yield figures.

In value terms, pepper production totaled $3.8B in 2018 estimated in export prices. Over the period under review, pepper production continues to indicate a remarkable increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2011 when production volume increased by 47% against the previous year. The global pepper production peaked at $4.6B in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2018, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of pepper production was Viet Nam (273K tonnes), comprising approx. 36% of total production. Moreover, pepper production in Viet Nam exceeded the figures recorded by the world’s second-largest producer, Indonesia (88K tonnes), threefold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Brazil (80K tonnes), with a 11% share.

In Viet Nam, pepper production expanded at an average annual rate of +8.1% over the period from 2007-2018. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Indonesia (+0.8% per year) and Brazil (+0.2% per year).

Harvested Area 2007-2018

In 2018, approx. 570K ha of pepper were harvested worldwide; stabilizing at the previous year. Overall, the pepper harvested area, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2009 when harvested area increased by 8% against the previous year. The global pepper harvested area peaked at 622K ha in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, harvested area failed to regain its momentum.

Yield 2007-2018

Global average pepper yield amounted to 1.3 tonne per ha in 2018, surging by 4.8% against the previous year. In general, the yield indicated prominent growth from 2007 to 2018: its figure increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, pepper yield increased by +53.3% against 2012 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 22% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the average pepper yield attained its maximum level in 2018 and is likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

Exports 2007-2018

Global exports totaled 392K tonnes in 2018, picking up by 6.5% against the previous year. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 7.9% y-o-y. Over the period under review, global pepper exports attained their maximum at 398K tonnes in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2018, exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, pepper exports stood at $2B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Over the period under review, pepper exports continue to indicate strong growth. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011 with an increase of 43% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global pepper exports reached their peak figure at $3.4B in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2018, exports failed to regain their momentum.

Exports by Country

Viet Nam represented the largest exporter of pepper in the world, with the volume of exports finishing at 142K tonnes, which was approx. 36% of total exports in 2018. It was distantly followed by Brazil (73K tonnes) and Indonesia (36K tonnes), together achieving a 28% share of total exports. India (17K tonnes), Germany (16K tonnes), Sri Lanka (15K tonnes), Malaysia (12K tonnes), Mexico (8.4K tonnes), the Netherlands (7.5K tonnes), France (6.8K tonnes) and the U.S. (6.8K tonnes) took a minor share of total exports.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by France, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Viet Nam ($743M) remains the largest pepper supplier worldwide, comprising 36% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Brazil ($243M), with a 12% share of global exports. It was followed by Indonesia, with a 9.9% share.

In Viet Nam, pepper exports increased at an average annual rate of +9.6% over the period from 2007-2018. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Brazil (+7.3% per year) and Indonesia (+2.9% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the average pepper export price amounted to $5,214 per tonne, going down by -14.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the pepper export price, however, continues to indicate remarkable growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 an increase of 51% y-o-y. The global export price peaked at $8,660 per tonne in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2018, export prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($8,605 per tonne), while Mexico ($2,602 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by India, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports 2007-2018

Global imports totaled 414K tonnes in 2018, picking up by 8.6% against the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when imports increased by 9.8% y-o-y. Over the period under review, global pepper imports attained their maximum in 2018 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future.

In value terms, pepper imports amounted to $2.1B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Overall, pepper imports continue to indicate a strong expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2011 when imports increased by 41% year-to-year. The global imports peaked at $3.3B in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2018, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

In 2018, the U.S. (75K tonnes), distantly followed by Viet Nam (35K tonnes), Germany (32K tonnes) and India (31K tonnes) were the major importers of pepper, together creating 42% of total imports. The following importers – the United Arab Emirates (16K tonnes), the UK (13K tonnes), France (11K tonnes), the Netherlands (11K tonnes), Spain (10K tonnes), Japan (9.5K tonnes), Pakistan (8.2K tonnes) and Russia (8K tonnes) – together made up 21% of total imports.

Imports into the U.S. increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2007 to 2018. At the same time, Viet Nam (+21.5%), India (+8.8%), the UK (+5.4%), the United Arab Emirates (+3.9%), Spain (+2.9%), Russia (+2.6%) and France (+2.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Viet Nam emerged as the fastest-growing importer in the world, with a CAGR of +21.5% from 2007-2018. Pakistan, Japan and Germany experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the Netherlands (-2.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2007 to 2018, the share of Viet Nam, India and the U.S. increased by +7.5%, +4.5% and +2.7% percentage points, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the U.S. ($391M) constitutes the largest market for imported pepper worldwide, comprising 18% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Germany ($188M), with a 8.9% share of global imports. It was followed by India, with a 7.8% share.

In the U.S., pepper imports increased at an average annual rate of +5.5% over the period from 2007-2018. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (+4.8% per year) and India (+14.1% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2018, the average pepper import price amounted to $5,122 per tonne, shrinking by -18.3% against the previous year. In general, the pepper import price, however, continues to indicate noticeable growth. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011 an increase of 45% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average import prices for pepper attained their peak figure at $8,550 per tonne in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2018, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was the United Arab Emirates ($8,027 per tonne), while Viet Nam ($2,485 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United Arab Emirates, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform