After a tumultuous stretch of international trade wars and a global economic crisis courtesy of the pandemic, the U.S. has a new president directing trade policy. What can business leaders expect from a Biden presidency as far as strategies, relations with major trading partners, and the role of the U.S. in global trade for the next few years? Early indications are that the U.S. – China relationship will remain tense, but the Biden team approach in other areas will differ greatly from the previous administration. Global partners can expect a change in tone from Washington, and there are five issues which will stand out as major differences under Biden’s leadership:

Number Five: The U.S. will reengage with the World Trade Organization (WTO), which should lead to a substantial reduction in unilateral ‘trade wars’ and tit-for-tat tariff exchanges. Under Trump, the WTO was marginalized and hamstrung by U.S. policies, as the appellate body did not have enough judges to take any action on trade disputes. Under Biden, the U.S. will be an active participant in the WTO and will use the organization to bring pressure against China and other nations on issues such as illegal support to state-owned enterprises. There is still an urgent need to reform the WTO, but the new administration seems poised to jump in and push for improvements.

Number Four: Russia is in the crosshairs. The on-again, off-again political relations between the U.S. and Russia should switch firmly to ‘off’ for the foreseeable future, as Biden’s foreign policy team has already indicated grave concerns over Russia’s meddling in Belarus as well as its treatment of protestors and dissidents such as Alexei Navalny in Russia. Biden ordered an extensive intelligence review of Russia’s actions over the last few years and will likely use the results of that report to tighten sanctions on Putin’s inner circle through the Magnitsky Act or dramatically limit trade and transactions with Russian state-owned enterprises, such as the Trump administration did with Huawei and other Chinese companies.

Number Three: The UK faces an uphill climb on their eventual U.S. trade deal. PM Boris Johnson lost an ally when President Trump left office, and the relationship with President Biden will be cordial but arm’s length. Johnson is in a tough spot, as he would like to secure a trade deal quickly to bolster his post-Brexit polling numbers, but Biden’s team is focused on the domestic agenda and probably will not see a need to negotiate this before 2022. The only way to move this deal to the front burner is to offer the U.S. one or more of the concessions it has long desired – increased access to the NHS for the U.S. pharmaceutical industry, lowered trade barriers for food imports, or improved entry into the services industry in the UK.  None of these would be popular for British voters, but Biden’s trade representative will be well-positioned to insist on key concessions.

Number Two: Biden’s team has committed early in the presidency to implement a “worker-centered trade policy” and that will color all of the legislation and trade deals that his administration will touch.  The intent of the policy is to ensure that future trade deals (including any potential participation in the CPTPP) do not harm American workers by giving the U.S. market access to foreign goods that were produced by underpaid and under-protected workers.  The flip side of this approach should be easier U.S. market entry from countries with decent labor (and environmental) standards, as the administration formulates a way to preference the ‘right’ type of imports.

The number one issue that will differ under the Biden administration is a desire to improve ties and trade opportunities with reliable partners. The tension with China will remain and potentially even deepen, but the Biden administration – stocked with committed ‘globalists’ – is going proactively tie other partners (especially fellow democracies) closer to the U.S. through increased trade and investment opportunities. Outside of North America, this will benefit Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Israel and the European Union most of all. Rather than adjustments to existing trade deals (some of which, like the USJTA and USMCA, were just recently completed), the Biden administration will look to use bilateral investment deals to promote greater trade ties with trusted partners, especially in areas such as renewable energy and defense technology.

On the outside looking in will be Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Russia and other countries that will find in the Biden administration a trade team that is willing to substantively weigh human rights abuses and the dangers of populist leaders when assessing trade deals, money-laundering regulations, sanctions and access to the U.S. market and technology. While this shift in approach and tone will not immediately push international trade traffic into new patterns, it will lay the groundwork for a transition to more benign trade policies and less regulation for businesses working with preferred partners.  The foundations of global trade will shift just enough to push some companies, already weakened and weary by the pandemic recession, into a difficult scramble to quickly move operations and find new partners.

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Kirk Samson is the owner of Samson Atlantic LLC, a Chicago-based international business consulting company which offers market entry research, political risk assessment, and international negotiations assistance.  Mr. Samson is a former U.S. diplomat and international law advisor.