A particularly virulent and nasty airborne virus, it has so far accounted for 2.5 million deaths worldwide with more than 110 million cases recorded at the time of writing. Given these numbers only represent reported incidences, the real tolls could well be substantially higher.

The pandemic has especially caught western societies on the backfoot. Unlike regions more used to infectious disease outbreaks such as Asia and Africa, the likes of Europe and North America have not had to deal with a public health threat of this kind since the Spanish flu disaster of 1918, a four-wave pandemic which is thought to have killed 675,000 people in the USA and 50 million worldwide.

Vaccinations are key to emerging from the worst of the crisis during 2021, both in terms of public health and the economy.

Regarding the latter, COVID-19 has been nothing short of a disaster. America has disproportionately suffered from the coronavirus: Not only does it have the highest registered death toll, but it is also forecast to lose trillions of dollars in revenue.

Predicting the size of the economic fallout is far from straightforward, and estimates vary tremendously.

According to a study by the University of Southern California, anywhere between $3 trillion and $5 trillion could be lost over the next two years, while economists at Harvard believe the pandemic will cost the U.S. $16 trillion, assuming it is over by this fall.

While uncertainty remains as to the exact extent of the financial damage, what cannot be denied is that the financial losses are and will continue to be enormous for years to come.

The second quarter of 2020 saw real gross domestic product in the U.S. decrease at an annual rate of 31.7 percent, the largest quarterly plunge in activity on record.

And one of the most worrying patterns emerging from 2020 is companies struggling to manage cashflows and stay afloat. Payments simply are not flowing through supply chains as they ordinarily would, an observation which is borne out by several reports and surveys.

For example, trade credit insurer Atradius reports in its annual Payment Practices Barometer that businesses across the USA, Canada and Mexico are facing widespread cash and liquidity pressures. Meanwhile, business credit information firm Cortera reported that in May 2020, large companies with more than 500 employees paid their suppliers 15.6 days late on average, up from around 10 days a year earlier.

Responding to economic disruption

So, how can companies safeguard themselves against this sort of financial disruption both now and in the future?

Paying particular attention to cash flow during times of crisis is essential if businesses are to emerge from this black swan event intact–even those that appear to be in strong financial shape, given the longevity of the demand and supply chain disruption being witnessed.

At the start of the pandemic, around March 2020, Deloitte released a series of advice papers on how supply chains can cope with the then anticipated fallout, one of these being “COVID-19: Managing cash flow during a period of crisis.”

“Given the importance of cash flow in times like this, companies should immediately develop a treasury plan for cash management as part of their overall business risk and continuity plans,” the report states. “In doing so, it is essential to take a full ecosystem and end-to-end supply chain perspective, as the approaches you take to manage cash will have implications for not only your business but also for your customers.”

Deloitte draws on lessons learned from the 2003 SARS epidemic, the 2008 global financial crash, and the 2011 Japanese earthquake, offering 15 specific practices and strategies for companies to better manage their cash flow.

15 ways to better manage your cashflow

1. Ensure you have a robust framework for managing supply chain risk.

2. Ensure your own financing remains viable.

3. Focus on the cash-to-cash conversion cycle.

4. Think like a CFO, across the organization.

5. Revisit your variable costs.

6. Revisit capital investment plans.

7. Focus on inventory management.

8. Extend payables, intelligently.

9. Manage and expedite receivables.

10. Consider alternate supply chain financing options.

11. Audit payables and receivables transactions.

12. Understand your business interruption insurance.

13. Consider alternate or non-traditional revenue streams.

14. Convert fixed to variable costs, where possible.

15. Think beyond your four walls.

*Source – Deloitte, “COVID-19: Managing cash flow during a period of crisis”

Among them is advice to extend payables–in other words, take longer to pay suppliers. However, Deloitte warns against delaying payments without prior agreement with customers, urging dialogue between both parties to ensure the supply chain is as minimally disrupted as possible.

Indeed, companies may wish to bring forward payments to suppliers if it prevents them from going out of business, the consequences of which being far costlier than using up some of your own cash reserves early.

As a supplier, offering dynamic discounting solutions for those able to pay more quickly could be a way to improve your cash flows; by using this technique, you are essentially paying customers to provide you with short-term financing. Going down this route could be expensive in the long term, but it could be the only viable option if other financing methods are not available.

Perhaps the most important, albeit least tangible piece of advice is to think outside of the confines of your own business. Rather than simply focus on your own operations, companies should think about how their actions will impact the wider supply chain ecosystem.

A further question revolves around the ways in which payments are being made.

COVID-19 has accelerated the adoption of digital and automated payment methods. For instance, according to research by digital transformation platform MX, there has been a rise in mobile banking engagement of 50 percent since the end of 2019.

The U.S. has been behind the curve on supply chain financing for quite some time. Widescale adoption of electronic, data-driven invoicing will create fluidity and working capital for both suppliers and buyers.

Responding to social disruption

Another dynamic to consider is how to mitigate social disruption.

There is already evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic has rekindled divisions within society–black and ethnic minorities are disproportionately affected by the virus, while the poorest have been hit hardest by the financial costs of lockdown policies.

While not being ostensibly linked to coronavirus, the traction gained by the Black Lives Matter movement in the U.S. has undoubtedly been heightened in the pandemic’s context.

It has also prompted major shifts in consumer and business circles: Citizens and enterprises are putting time and capital towards prioritizing diversity and inclusion.

“Supplier diversity initiatives are no exception,” states supply chain software provider GEP in its 2021 Outlook. “In 2021, procurement and supply chain leaders will need to do more–by developing new approaches to include minority-owned businesses to achieve real targets for supplier diversity.”

Indeed, hardwiring diversity and inclusion into the procure-to-pay process will help organizations respond to the social unrest of 2020. This will involve tracking and benchmarking metrics at a transactional level, and companies can start by focusing on direct spending with small and diverse suppliers.

Going back to Deloitte’s advice on thinking beyond your four walls, businesses should also monitor the revenue growth of their suppliers in order to fully assess the impact of their supplier diversity and inclusion strategies.